The U.S. Primaries and Iraq

With Super Tuesday over and neither nomination decided, it’s interesting to note how far off the radar the war in Iraq has gone as an election issue. Michael Gerson has an opinion piece in today’s WaPo arguing that McCain’s success in the primaries is due to his support for the surge. McCain’s campaign was tanking last summer when no one thought the surge could work. Now that the surge is “working”, McCain has been vindicated and that has translated into votes.

I find that rather unlikely. The drop in American casualties means that the war gets less time on the nightly news and less space in the broadsheets. At the same time, the economy is tanking, Republicans are anxious over immigration, and the Democrats want universal health care. McCain no doubt benefits from his “tough on terror” image, which I find rather alarming (he seems more likely than any other candidate to start a new war in the Middle East). But his support for the surge probably is not even an issue for primary voters.

After 2006, many people thought that in 2008 the Republicans would be severely chastised over the war in Iraq. Given the current political situation, that scenario is looking a lot less likely.